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BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020

500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...17.7N 83.5W

ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico

* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was

located a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,

longitude 83.6 West. Zeta is currently stationary and is continuing

to re-organize. However, a slow north-northwestward to northwestward

motion is expected to resume later today. A turn toward the

west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by

Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the

forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba

early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or

Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico

on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are

near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is

expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to

become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),

mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the

NOAA aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header

WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall bands will be expansive along and

east-northeast of Zetas track. Across portions of central and

western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan

peninsula of Mexico, Southern Florida and the Keys, storm total

rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are

possible through Wednesday.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to

affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash

flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning

area in Cuba by Monday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in

Mexico by Monday evening.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Stewart