Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located a few hundred miles west-northwest of the central Azores.

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:

Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that an area of low pressure has formed in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, though the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. The environment is forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or so. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend where conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia later this evening.

Interests in Jamaica should closely monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci