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BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019

1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT BARRY IS STRENGTHENING...

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS

EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Lake Pontchartrain

and east of Shell Beach to Biloxi Mississippi.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle

* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New

Orleans

* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Intracoastal City to Biloxi

* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle

* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama

border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the

coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast

to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was

located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.4 West. Barry is

moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion

toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a

turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the

center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of

Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central

Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to

move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through

Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph

(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast

before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the

center reaches the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after

Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center. The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass

of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of

54 mph and a wind gust of 60 mph at an elevation of 125 ft.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface

observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft

Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft

Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft

Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft

Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana along

with southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of

25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life

threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into

the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the remainder of the Lower

Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are

expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning

area tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning

during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible

within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the Tropical Storm

Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm

conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight

or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are

possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western

Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible this afternoon through

tonight across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and

the Alabama coast.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Beven