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Statement from the National Hurricane Center in Miami:

A broad low pressure area has emerged on this Tuesday afternoon over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on Wednesday, if necessary.

This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office - www.weather.gov - and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center - www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Statement from Roger Ericsson at NWS Lake Charles:

As of 1230 pm Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center has a high 80 percent chance for tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The current scenario shows a potential tropical cyclone developing on Wednesday or Thursday in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, heading west towards the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana region. This system has the potential to become a dangerous hurricane. The threat for damaging winds and deadly storm surge is increasing.

Since this system has not developed yet, there is still considerable uncertainty to the exact timing, magnitude, and location of these threats. Everyone should continue to monitor the weather this week.