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BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019

1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE

SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA...

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS

EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...28.6N 91.0W

ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle

* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New

Orleans

* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Intracoastal City to Biloxi

* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle

* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama

border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the

coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was

located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 91.0 West. Barry is

moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion

toward the northwest should begin overnight, followed by a turn

toward the north Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track,

the center of Barry will approach the south-central coast of

Louisiana tonight and then make landfall along the south-central

Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to

move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through

Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is

expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana

coast on Saturday. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center. An observation platform at South Timbalier Block

off the coast of Louisiana has recently reported a sustained wind

of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft

Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft

Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft

Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and

southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.

These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening

flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower

Mississippi Valley beginning as early as Saturday morning. Across

the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain

accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to

produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western

portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning

area later tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions

currently spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are

possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight or Saturday

morning. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the

Tropical Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch

area by tonight or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in

squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the

western Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible late tonight through

Saturday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Brown