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BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019

400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF

LOUISIANA...

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...28.1N 87.4W

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended westward to Intracoastal

City Louisiana.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi

River westward to Cameron Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the Mouth of

the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl

River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the

coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas

Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this

system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the broad disturbance was centered near

latitude 28.1 North, longitude 87.4 West. The system is moving

toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the

west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,

followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward

the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwestward

motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected

to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate

that maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the

disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday

morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in

coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a

tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.

*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent

*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the

aircraft and surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain

accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf

Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall

amounts of 18 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred

across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which

has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch

area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by

early Friday.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Stewart