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BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019

400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY LANDFALL ON SATURDAY...

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS

EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...28.7N 90.9W

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle

* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New

Orleans

* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Intracoastal City to Biloxi

* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle

* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama

border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the

coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast

to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was

located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 90.9 West. Barry is

moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion

toward the northwest should begin during the next several hours,

followed by a turn toward the north Saturday night or Sunday. On

the forecast track, the center of Barry will approach the central or

southeastern coast of Louisiana through tonight and then make

landfall over the central Louisiana coast on Saturday. After

landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward through the

Mississippi Valley through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is

expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana

coast on Saturday. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center. An oil rig located southwest of the Mouth of the

Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph and a

wind gust of 85 mph at an elevation of 295 ft.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft

Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft

Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft

Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft

Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and

southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.

These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening

flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower

Mississippi Valley. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi

Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with

isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is

expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across

western portions of the Tennessee Valley.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning

area tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions currently

spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within

the Hurricane Watch area tonight or Saturday morning. Tropical

storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning

area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm

conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight

or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are

possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western

Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible late tonight through

Saturday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Beven